Strategy Proposal

Transitioning to
NCAC-Driven Growth

Moving Vegamour's Google Ads from brand capture to incremental new customer acquisition, increasing the new customer ratio from 19.6% toward 50%.

Data Period
July 1 - 30, 2026
Account
vegaLASH (756-784-6915)
Prepared By
Melleka Marketing

The Branded Revenue Trap

Google's analysis reveals a critical dependency on branded terms. The current structure captures existing demand rather than creating new demand, limiting growth potential.

Branded Revenue Share
86.6%
$189.3K of $218.7K from "Vegamour" terms
Branded Conv Share
84.4%
1,813 of 2,150 conversions from brand
New Customer Ratio
19.6%
Goal: 50% new customer acquisition
Gap to Close
+30.4pts
Need to more than double new customer %
86.6%
Branded
Branded Search Revenue
$189.3K
Non-Branded Search Revenue
$29.4K
Branded Conversions
1,813
Non-Branded Conversions
337

The Core Problem: The current account structure funnels the vast majority of spend toward users who already know Vegamour. These customers would likely convert organically or via direct/email. Google Ads is capturing credit for conversions it did not create, while genuinely new customers represent less than 1 in 5 purchasers.

Campaign Performance Overview

July 1-30 data from the vegaLASH account. PMax campaigns dominate spend but are heavily indexed toward branded conversions.

Campaign Type Spend Clicks Conv Conv Value
Branded Search USABrand$101,74820,6052,605$274,3952.70x
Shopping USAShopping$54,38014,6921,349$127,1792.34x
Pmax - Hair Growth SerumsPMax$23,84316,287550$64,2452.69x
Pmax - Shampoo Conditioner KitsPMax$20,17528,890442$43,7172.17x
Subscription | PMaxPMax$15,37116,808398$35,6832.32x
Male | Hair Serum | PMaxPMax$11,14415,986305$30,8072.76x
Hair Quiz | PMaxPMax$10,4844,380282$25,4202.42x
GRO Ageless | PMaxPMax$8,2363,943205$21,9432.66x
Demand GenerationDemandGen$8,15120,19177$6,2090.76x
PMax | Lash SerumPMax$6,6922,797203$17,6642.64x
Non-Brand Search USANon-Brand$5,4046,25166$6,1561.14x
Hydr8 Oil | PMaxPMax$2,4501,09835$2,6551.08x
Scalp Duo | PMaxPMax$2,0551,99648$4,7972.33x
PMax | Style WandPMax$1,8342,14138$5,1522.81x
TOTAL (14 Campaigns)$271,968156,0656,604$666,0212.45x
🔎

Key Observation: Branded Search USA accounts for 37.4% of total spend. PMax campaigns collectively spend $102.3K (37.6% of budget) but the majority of their conversions come from users already searching for "Vegamour," raising the question of true incrementality.

Top Converting Search Terms

Branded terms dominate. The top NB term ("hair growth serum") generated just $1,267 in revenue vs. $209K for "vegamour."

Search Term Type Impressions Clicks Conv Revenue
vegamour Brand 76,920 33,850 896 $209,068
vegamour hair serum Brand 5,020 2,765 114 $28,735
vegamour lash serum Brand 3,890 2,103 81 $18,441
vegamour shampoo Brand 2,730 1,501 52 $8,224
hair growth serum Non-Brand 14,200 890 6 $1,267
hair growth products Non-Brand 8,400 520 3 $487
lash growth serum Non-Brand 6,800 410 2 $312

Current Model vs. NCAC Growth

Shifting from a brand-capture model that takes credit for existing customers to an acquisition model that creates genuinely new demand.

Current Model

Brand Capture

Optimized around branded conversions, capturing customers who already know and search for Vegamour.

  • 86.6% of revenue from branded terms
  • PMax defaults to branded queries for easy wins
  • Only 19.6% are genuinely new customers
  • Performance looks strong but is inflated by brand traffic
  • Paid cannibalizes organic brand searches
  • Growth ceiling, diminishing returns
NCAC Model

New Customer Acquisition

Prioritize spend toward users who have never heard of Vegamour, driving incremental revenue growth.

  • Target category terms: "hair growth serum," "lash serum"
  • PMax with brand exclusions to force prospecting
  • Measure NCAC (New Customer Acquisition Cost) as primary KPI
  • Accept higher initial CPA for higher LTV customers
  • Let organic handle branded queries naturally
  • Unlock new growth ceiling through top-of-funnel

PMax Branded Leakage

PMax campaigns are designed to find converting audiences across all Google surfaces. However, the algorithm gravitates toward branded searches because they convert easily, making performance appear healthy while limiting new audience discovery.

Total PMax Spend
$102.3K
37.6% of total account spend
PMax Conversions
2,506
38% of total account conversions
Estimated Brand Leak
~60-70%
Of PMax conversions likely from branded queries

PMax Transparency Gap: Google does not fully disclose which queries PMax campaigns are serving on. The search term insights only show a fraction of actual queries. This lack of transparency makes it impossible to know what % of PMax is truly incremental without brand exclusion testing.

The Non-Branded Whitespace

Non-Brand Search currently receives just 2.0% of total spend ($5,404 of $272K). These are category terms where Vegamour can reach people who have never heard of the brand.

NB Search Spend
$5,404
Only 2.0% of total budget
Shopping USA Spend
$54,380
20.0% of total budget (brand + non-brand)
Demand Gen Spend
$8,151
3.0% of total budget
Total NB Allocation
9.6%
$5.4K of $272K goes to dedicated non-brand search

Category Keywords Ready to Scale

High-intent, non-branded terms in Vegamour's category with proven search volume.

hair growth serum
High volume, proven converter
best hair growth products
High intent, comparison shoppers
lash growth serum
Core category, direct competitor
hair loss treatment women
Problem-aware, high LTV
natural hair growth
Brand-aligned, clean beauty
thinning hair solutions
Problem-aware, high purchase intent
hair growth supplements
Product category, competitive
best lash serum
Comparison, purchase-ready
hair regrowth for women
Gender-specific, high value
eyelash growth serum
Product category, direct match
scalp treatment for hair growth
Product-aware, Vegamour strength
biotin shampoo for hair loss
Ingredient-aware, educated buyer

4-Phase Transition Plan

A structured rollout that protects current revenue while systematically shifting budget toward new customer acquisition over 8-12 weeks.

Phase 1

Foundation

Set up NCAC tracking infrastructure. Define new vs. returning customer segments. Establish baseline metrics.

Week 1-2
Phase 2

Restructure

Add brand exclusions to PMax campaigns. Scale NB Search budgets. Create dedicated NB campaign structure.

Week 3-4
Phase 3

Scale

Shift 30-40% of PMax budget to NB campaigns. Launch category-specific ad groups. Test DemandGen for top-of-funnel.

Week 5-8
Phase 4

Optimize

Analyze new customer LTV data. Refine NCAC targets by category. Scale winning NB segments aggressively.

Week 9-12

Specific Account Actions

Unit Economics & Expected Outcomes

LTV modeled on contribution margin (net of COGS, fulfillment, and first-order discounts) with a realistic monthly retention curve based on DTC subscription benchmarks for beauty/personal care.

First Order Unit Economics

Line ItemAmount% of Revenue
Subscription Revenue (First Order)Average first-order subscription price$39.00100%
First-Order Discount (20%)New subscriber promotional pricing-$7.80-20%
Net Revenue (First Order)$31.2080%
COGSProduct cost, packaging, raw materials-$10.92-28%
Fulfillment & ShippingPick, pack, ship, carrier fees-$6.00-15%
Payment Processing~3% of net revenue-$0.94-2.4%
Contribution Margin (First Order)$13.3434.2%

Recurring Order Unit Economics (Month 2+)

Line ItemAmount% of Revenue
Subscription Revenue (Full Price)No first-order discount applied$39.00100%
COGS-$10.92-28%
Fulfillment & Shipping-$6.00-15%
Payment Processing (~3%)-$1.17-3%
Contribution Margin (Recurring)$20.9153.6%

Monthly Retention Curve

Based on DTC beauty subscription benchmarks. Heaviest churn occurs in months 2-3 as one-time tryers drop off, then stabilizes as loyal subscribers remain.

Mo 1
100%
Mo 2
60%
-40% churn
Mo 3
45%
-25% churn
Mo 4
38%
-16% churn
Mo 5
33%
-13% churn
Mo 6
29%
-12% churn
Mo 7
26%
Mo 8
24%
Mo 9
22%
Mo 10
21%
Mo 11
20%
Mo 12
19%

12-Month Contribution Margin LTV (Per 100 New Subscribers)

Shows cumulative contribution margin per cohort of 100 new subscribers, accounting for the discounted first order and monthly churn.

Month Retention Rate Active Subs Revenue / Sub CM / Sub Cohort CM Cumulative CM
Month 1100%100$31.20$13.34$1,334$1,334
Month 260%60$39.00$20.91$1,255$2,589
Month 345%45$39.00$20.91$941$3,530
Month 438%38$39.00$20.91$795$4,325
Month 533%33$39.00$20.91$690$5,015
Month 629%29$39.00$20.91$606$5,621
Month 726%26$39.00$20.91$544$6,165
Month 824%24$39.00$20.91$502$6,667
Month 922%22$39.00$20.91$460$7,127
Month 1021%21$39.00$20.91$439$7,566
Month 1120%20$39.00$20.91$418$7,984
Month 1219%19$39.00$20.91$397$8,381

12-Month LTV (Contribution Margin)

$83.81
Per new subscriber, net of COGS, fulfillment, discounts, and churn

Breakeven CPA Target

$83.81
Maximum CPA where 12-month contribution margin = $0 profit

Target NCAC (50% Margin)

$41.90
CPA target that preserves 50% of LTV as profit

Payback Period at $60 CPA

~3.5 mo
Months until cumulative CM covers acquisition cost at $60 CPA

Current NCAC vs. Benchmark LTV: The Gap

Current NCAC (Low End)
$120
vs.
12-Mo CM LTV (Benchmark)
$83.81
=
Gap Per Subscriber
-$36.19

Using industry benchmarks, a $120 NCAC exceeds the 12-month contribution margin LTV by ~43%, meaning year-1 payback is negative on a margin basis. However, this gap could narrow significantly, or close entirely, with Vegamour's actual COGS, fulfillment costs, and retention curve. If real margins are stronger than benchmarks, the true LTV could support a $120 NCAC. This is exactly why validating with real unit economics is critical before setting final targets.

Expected Transition Timeline

Short-Term (Weeks 1-4)

The Reset Period

  • Blended CPA will increase 20-40% as budget shifts toward non-branded
  • NB campaigns will show high CPAs initially ($80-150)
  • PMax conversion volume will decrease with brand exclusions
  • Total revenue may dip 10-15% in the first 2-3 weeks
  • This is expected and normal during restructuring
Mid-Term (Weeks 5-8)

The Optimization Phase

  • NB CPAs will stabilize as Google's algorithm learns
  • New customer ratio should climb to 30-35%
  • Category keyword quality scores will improve
  • PMax will start finding genuine new audiences
  • Organic branded traffic should increase as paid steps back
Long-Term (Weeks 9-12+)

The Growth Unlock

  • New customer ratio targets 40-50%
  • NCAC stabilizes at a sustainable, CM-justified level
  • Subscription revenue from new cohorts compounds monthly
  • Total revenue exceeds pre-transition levels through new volume
  • Growth ceiling removed, scalable acquisition engine built
📈

The Contribution Margin Argument: Using industry benchmarks, the CM-based LTV is $83.81 per subscriber, which puts the current $120 NCAC above the 12-month breakeven point. But these are benchmark inputs, not Vegamour actuals. If real COGS is lower than 28% or retention is stronger than the generic curve, the true LTV could be meaningfully higher and may justify the $120 target. The path forward is clear: validate with real unit economics so we can set NCAC targets backed by actual margins, not assumptions.

⚠️

Important Assumptions: The retention curve, COGS (28%), and fulfillment costs ($6/order) used here are industry benchmarks for DTC beauty subscriptions. Vegamour's actual numbers may differ. We recommend validating these assumptions with your finance team and adjusting the model accordingly. The framework and methodology remain the same regardless of the specific inputs.

The Bottom Line

🌱

Vegamour is paying Google Ads to capture customers who already want to buy. The 86.6% branded revenue share means the current account is a $272K/month brand tax, not a growth engine. By transitioning to an NCAC model, we shift from capturing existing demand to creating new demand, unlocking a scalable acquisition channel that compounds through Vegamour's subscription model. The short-term efficiency dip is the cost of building a real growth engine. The long-term payoff is a 50% new customer ratio and a revenue ceiling that keeps rising.